Skip to main content
Back

Global Macro Outlook Q3 2023: The long and winding road

Macroeconomic Strategy Team

6 July 2023

Key takeaways

  • Recession postponed, not canceled—Despite the aggressive policy tightening we’ve seen so far, economic activity in developed economies proved to be more resilient than expected amid a strong rebound in the services sector.
  • Inflation is still too sticky at uncomfortable levels—While headline inflation is easing, core inflation remains stubbornly high, and it isn’t just due to services inflation: Goods inflation is inflecting higher after a period of decline.
  • We believe central bank policy easing will be more gradual than consensus expectations—From the Bank of Canada to the Reserve Bank of Australia to Bank Negara Malaysia to the U.S. Federal Reserve, central banks around the world are proving to be more hawkish than expected.
  • Shifting geopolitics and the need for a new market playbook—There are signs that we’re entering a new global regime, requiring a rethink of how risk assets respond to changes in the macro backdrop. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. We continue to believe:

1. The market is premature in its pricing of dovish pivots from central banks, both in terms of timing and magnitude.

2. There’s a risk that even if the Fed pauses in the coming months, the next move could be more tightening, not easing.

3. Markets need to reassess the central bank put for asset prices.

 

Download the full PDF

 

 

  • Asian High Yield: Building resiliency amid volatility

    Although emerging from a difficult period, Asian-high-yield is positioned to weather the current market volatility due to regional economic strength and unique asset class characteristics.

    Read more
  • Global Healthcare: Enhanced innovation in a post-COVID environment

    We discuss the attractiveness of allocating to the healthcare sector in the current economic environment and outlines why it warrants a long-term allocation.

    Read more
  • What’s next for China’s property sector?

    The road ahead is likely to be bumpy but select opportunities still exist in the US-dollar high-yield bond space. Robust credit selection and valuation assessment have become even more important considerations in the current market environment.

    Read more
See all
  • Navigating interest rate and growth uncertainty with high income multi-asset solutions

    We believe that multi-asset income solutions like GMADI will remain relevant and attractive for investors as yields remain high, offering the opportunity to capture an abundance of elevated yields in the market.

    Read more
  • Asia-Pacific REITs: A shift in expectations

    AP REITs should benefit from the shifting macro landscape, leading to several positive trends such as improving distribution per unit (DPU) growth and increasing inorganic opportunities.

    Read more
  • Asian Credit: Three themes should propel returns in 2H 2024

    We explain how three themes should continue to support Asian credit in the second half of the year, presenting attractive opportunities for investors, particularly in the high-yield segment.

    Read more
See all